Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.037836 1.217836 1.419750 1.663075 1.948460 2.272719 2.669363
2024-10-06 0.797980 1.049327 1.364793 1.790100 2.349218 3.060267 4.035165
2024-10-13 0.608252 0.867220 1.219249 1.733330 2.466418 3.476754 4.979799
2024-10-20 0.484308 0.737198 1.103887 1.675210 2.545491 3.825789 5.861175
2024-10-27 0.396967 0.639258 1.010653 1.622546 2.609219 4.144863 6.730418
2024-11-03 0.347278 0.588110 0.976065 1.648003 2.788158 4.654546 7.963049
2024-11-10 0.324246 0.574983 0.997674 1.764079 3.126730 5.463009 9.805026
2024-11-17 0.295002 0.545800 0.986677 1.820554 3.368506 6.138384 11.516311
2024-11-24 0.263948 0.508029 0.954163 1.831887 3.528103 6.686779 13.075228
2024-12-01 0.234446 0.468285 0.911627 1.816728 3.633210 7.145033 14.525922
2024-12-08 0.210107 0.434670 0.875447 1.807443 3.746180 7.630107 16.096523
2024-12-15 0.192107 0.410979 0.855041 1.825990 3.916157 8.248312 18.027476
2024-12-22 0.168547 0.372904 0.801509 1.770733 3.930228 8.561639 19.390018
2024-12-29 0.163859 0.374868 0.832298 1.901977 4.368459 9.841588 23.094426
2025-01-05 0.144391 0.340925 0.780468 1.841383 4.368207 10.158668 24.652475
2025-01-12 0.127466 0.310240 0.731456 1.779597 4.355104 10.443000 26.176120
2025-01-19 0.113124 0.283519 0.687736 1.723626 4.346913 10.736372 27.767145
2025-01-26 0.105483 0.272052 0.678537 1.750681 4.547077 11.560989 30.831110
2025-02-02 0.103814 0.275391 0.705902 1.874046 5.010549 13.107954 36.028367
2025-02-09 0.098807 0.269308 0.708736 1.934069 5.317471 14.298878 40.463824
2025-02-16 0.091945 0.257248 0.694439 1.946114 5.496961 15.179962 44.185159
2025-02-23 0.084545 0.242602 0.671206 1.930003 5.595689 15.855592 47.428707
2025-03-02 0.078128 0.229791 0.651212 1.920134 5.710951 16.594568 50.981767